27/04/2011
Saritdet Marukatat
Bangkok Post
The Royal Thai Army has to overcome its historical jinx, which is its worst enemy at a time when tension is on the boil at the border with Cambodia.
Military leaders including army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha have vowed that Thai troops are ready to launch "punitive action" against Cambodia once the government gives it the green light. At present Thailand's position is a defensive one - retaliating against Cambodian forces only when the latter intrude on Thai soil with military force.
As border tensions continue to escalate, the Thai army and government are drawing increasing flak from the public for not acting sternly and effectively enough to end this armed intrusion by Cambodia and for letting Phnom Penh's forces to brazenly challenge Thailand's legitimate boundaries.
When it comes to quarrels with Cambodia, the general perception is that Thailand cannot be the loser; it cannot let history repeat the failure of 1962, when the International Court of Justice ruled in favour of Phnom Penh regarding ownership of the hilltop Preah Vihear Temple (though the adjoining area of 4.6sqkm was not adjudicated on).
The fresh outbreak of armed clashes which began on April 22 at Ta Muen and Ta Kwai temple ruins in Surin's Phanom Dong Rak district and which yesterday expanded to the disputed area near Preah Vihear opposite Si Sa Ket's Kantharalak district, is viewed by the army as another attempt by Cambodia to seize Thai territory at the border - similar to the battle over the Hindu temple more than four decades ago. And the army is ready to teach this egregious neighbour a proper lesson - if the government gives it the go-ahead.
There is no doubt the Thai military's weapons are far superior to those of Cambodia's forces, even though Cambodian soldiers may have more experience in warfare dating back to the days when that country endured internal conflicts among its armed factions including the globally despised Khmer Rouge.
There is also the view that Cambodia's real intent behind the current border clashes is not to claim other disputed areas along the frontier, but that by turning the conflict into a full-scale war between the two countries would necessarily foment tension within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; that by using the military option the Cambodian government would be fulfilling its diplomatic aim, which is to escalate the border issue to a stage where it would no longer be able to be resolved by the two parties to the conflict and thus necessitate the arbitration of a third party, preferably the United Nations.
The current clashes follow Asean's stalled proposal to send Indonesian observers to the Thai-Cambodian border, a plan that has yet to proceed due to the Thai army's strong opposition. Phnom Penh has long been prepared to receive the Indonesian observers, having arranged places for them to stay and monitor the situation. But Thailand views the move as a threat to its position, which is to try and find a solution to the dispute via direct talks with Cambodia.
Thailand's history of proud independence, having thwarted the colonial desires of France and Britain during the reign of King Chulalongkorn (Rama V), has shaped its belief that there is no need for foreign interference in the country's affairs, including the attempts to demarcate the land border with Cambodia. The slow pace of the Asean plan has caused much frustration for Phnom Penh and it now seemingly hopes to use the armed conflict as a means of bringing the Indonesian proposal back on track.
The timing of the latest clashes must also be considered: it is only a fortnight before the Asean summit is held in Jakarta. The issue will no doubt be the most urgent one on the agenda for Asean leaders when they meet during May 7-8, as other members are anxious that the border spat could delay if not derail Asean's ambitious project to turn the Southeast Asian region into one free-trade bloc, an Asean Economic Community, by 2015.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Cambodian Premier Hun Sen will face peer pressure to sort out the conflict and the matter of installing Indonesian observers is expected to be revived as a solution to the problem. The presence of the observers would hopefully calm the situation and prevent future clashes. It would at the very least show that Asean can tackle members' problems on its own - although the Cambodian government wants the border issue to go all the way to the United Nations and perhaps even the International Court of Justice, to settle the disputed area for good with another ruling from the world court. That includes the 4.6sqkm area near Preah Vihear, since the World Heritage Committee wants to see how Cambodia will come up with a management plan as part of the conditions for listing the 9th century Hindu temple as a World Heritage Site.
Political problems have forced Thailand to reject a joint management plan undertaken by the two countries in the absence of a demarcated boundary near Preah Vihear. Thailand insists on settling the matter of unclear ownership first, before taking the next step of talking about managing the area.
The pressure is now on Mr Abhisit as he will have to go to Jakarta and convince the other Asean leaders on the best option for resolving the border dispute if Thailand continues to reject having observers from Indonesia.
The real obstacle remains Hun Sen, who apparently has lost all faith in settling the conflict through bilateral negotiations, though he too wants the Preah Vihear matter settled as soon as possible for fear of losing the World Heritage listing.
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