Barça is in what appears to be a tough spot. Without even considering the loss of both Puyol and Pique, no squad wants to find itself facing a deficit going into the second leg of a Champions League knockout tie, even if it’s only a one goal deficit, you have an away goal and the match will be played at home. It’s especially unpleasant when the opposition will be arriving with a plane-full of world class talent that finds itself sitting extremely close to the top in one of the world’s elite leagues.
Such is life for the blaugrana as they prepare for Tuesday’s massively-huge match with Arsenal. “Barcelona Lite” features Cesc Fabregas, who according to scattered reports is from Barcelona and trained in the local football academy, and Arsene Wenger, a coach who makes no secret of his admiration for the brand of football that Barça play. But if any culés took them lightly, those feelings probably faded after the Gunners shocked Barça with two late goals in London.
But history tells us winning 2-1 at home in the first leg of a Champions League tie is far from a free pass to the next round. In fact, the statistics suggest Arsenal fans should be just as worried. Since the European Cup became the Champions League in the 1992-93 season, 16 times has a home team won the first leg of a knockout tie 2-1. Only 8 times has that team gone on to the next round. Another figure to encourage the blaugrana: 3 of those occurrences were in the 90′s. Since the dawn of the millenium, teams facing the 2-1 deficit after the away leg are 8-5 in favor of moving on. And among the teams that were in the same position that Barça finds itself in are some excellent squads, including the 2002 champion Real Madrid squad. What’s more, the list of teams that were in Arsenal’s position but failed to go through also features some extremely talented squads from the top leagues in Europe. Unfortunately, the list includes a bad memory – the 2005 Barcelona squad, which went on to win La Liga, and the Champions League a year later. They fell to Mourinho’s Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, after picking up a 2-1 win at Camp Nou. But it goes to show that nothing is impossible, or even unlikely, and Arsenal’s impressive record and their roster of stars doesn’t guarantee anything.
Also of note for culés: In 1993, Barca lost a first leg clash with Dynamo Kiev in Ukraine, 3-1. But Barca went on to take the tie on a 5-4 aggregate, after romping in the second leg at Camp Nou.
For your browsing pleasure, here is a list of all ties that finished 2-1 in favor of the home team in the first leg, the result, and how both squads finished the year. The qualifying rounds which take place in August and feature teams from smaller leagues were excluded.
Occurrences where the first leg home team went on to the next round:
Second round, 1992-93
Leg 1: Rangers 2-1 Leeds United
Leg 2: Leeds 1-2 Rangers
Rangers win 4-2, fail to advance out of group stage, which took place later in the tournament at this point
First round, 1993-94
1: Galatasaray 2-1 Cork City
2: Cork City 1-0 Galatasaray
Galatasaray wins 3-1, fail to advance out of group stage, which took place later in the tournament at this point
Quarterfinals, 1998-99
1: Juventus 2-1 Olympiacos
2: Olympiacos 1-1 Juventus
Juventus wins 3-2, lost in semifinals to champ Manchester United
First knockout round, 2003-04
1: Porto 2-1 Man U
2: Man U 1-1 Porto
Porto wins 3-2, goes on to beat Monaco in final to win Champions League
Quarterfinals, 2004-05
1: Liverpool 2-1 Juventus
2: Juventus 0-0 Liverpool
Liverpool wins 2-1, beats AC Milan on penalties in final to win Champions League
First knockout round, 2007-08
1: Roma 2-1 R Madrid
2: R Madrid 1-2 Roma
Roma wins 4-2, loses to champ Manchester United in quarters
Round of 16, 2009-10
1: Bayern Munich 2-1 Fiorentina
2: Fiorentina 3-2 Bayern
Bayern goes through on away goals 4-4, loses to Inter in final
Quarterfinals, 2009-10
1: Bayern 2-1 Man U
2: Man U 3-2 Bayern
Bayern goes through on away goals 4-4, loses to Inter in final
Occurrences where the first leg away team overcame the 2-1 deficit in the second leg:
Quarterfinals, 2000-01
1: Arsenal 2-1 Valencia
2: Valencia 1-0 Arsenal
Valencia goes through on away goals 2-2, goes on to lose final to Bayern on penalties
Quarterfinals, 2001-02
1: Bayern Munich 2-1 Real Madrid
2: Real Madrid 2-0 Bayern
Real Madrid wins 3-2, goes on to beat Bayer Leverkusen in final to win Champions League
First knockout round, 2003-04
1: Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Monaco
2: Monaco 1-0 Lokomotiv
Monaco goes through on away goals, 2-2, goes on to lose finals to Porto
First knockout round, 2004-05
1: Barca 2-1 Chelsea
2: Chelsea 4-2 Barca
Chelsea wins 5-4, loses to Liverpool in semis
Quarterfinals, 2005-06
1: Inter-2-1 Villarreal
2: Villarreal 1-0 Inter
Villarreal goes through on away goals 2-2, loses 1-0 to Arsenal in semis
Quarterfinals, 2006-07
1: Roma 2-1 Man U
2: Man U 7-1 Roma
Man U wins 8-3, loses to eventual champ Milan in semis
Quarterfinals, 2007-08
1: Fenerbache 2-1 Chelsea
2: Chelsea 2-0 Fenerbache
Chelsea wins 3-2, loses to Manchester United in finals
Round of 16, 2009-10
1: Porto 2-1 Arsenal
2: Arsenal 5-0 Porto
Arsenal wins 6-2, loses to FC Barcelona in quarters
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