Monday 13 June 2011

FOREX-Euro, Aussie edge up; China CPI not as bad as feared


* Euro still mired near record low vs safe-haven Swiss, 1.200 stops eyed

* Risk currencies gain with equities, U.S. retail sales eyed next

By Ian Chua and Eric Burroughs

TOKYO/SYDNEY, June 14 (Reuters) - The euro pulled up from near a record low against the Swiss franc on Tuesday after Chinese inflation figures provided some relief that the country would not get more aggressive on tightening policy, providing a broad boost to risky assets.

The Australian dollar also gained after an array of Chinese reports showed industrial production and retail sales posting solid growth. Consumer prices accelerated to a 5.5 percent annual rate in May, slightly higher than the Reuters consensus forecast and the fastest in nearly three years.

Heading into the data releases, market players had fretted that a quicker rise in Chinese inflation would prompt the People's Bank of China to step up its aggressive tightening campaign, adding to the threats facing the slowing global economy.

But the figures were close enough to forecasts to provide some reassurance that Beijing did not need to take harsher measures to rein in inflation and a red-hot property sector.

"The market got caught short. The whisper number for CPI was 6 percent ... so we're seeing a round of short covering on the back of that," said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC in Hong Kong.

The euro's intraday rebound took it back above $1.44 to challenge near-term resistance in the $1.4430/50 zone. A clean push through that resistance to the $.4470/80 area would brighten the single currency's outlook for now, traders said.

The market is now turning its attention to inflation figures in other parts of the world, and most importantly the May data on U.S. retail sales for signs on whether the sudden slowdown in the economy is hampering household spending.

"We've just had some very negative surprises," said a trader at a U.S. bank in Hong Kong. "Unless retail sales are worse than expected, maybe we'll have a nice bounce for equities and cross/yen."

The euro was up slightly from late U.S. trade at $1.4418 , recovering from a session low of $1.43782 on EBS. The single currency was down a tad at 1.2057 francs and off a session low of 1.2012, coming close to the record low and stop-loss orders seen near the 1.200 level.

The high-yielding Australian dollar was up 0.2 percent at $1.0628 , one of the best performers on the day.

Equities and commodities also took heart from the Chinese data and posted gains thanks to some short-covering. The broad MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.8 percent, while gold and crude oil CLc1 rose.

SAFE-HAVEN SWISSIE

The safe-haven Swiss franc held near a record high against the euro, benefiting from the ongoing European debt crisis and being viewed as one of the few major currencies not suffering from debt troubles or the currency debasement of quantitative easing.

The euro managed to climb against the dollar on Monday even as European officials remained at loggerheads over an agreement to provide a second bailout and whether it would include changes that could trigger a full-blown restructuring for private lenders.

On Monday, Standard & Poor's slashed Greece's rating to CCC, making the highly-indebted country its lowest-rated in the world. S&P said European policymakers look increasingly likely to impose a restructuring of Greece's debt.

"The clock is ticking on a solution for the Greek debt crisis," BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note.

The dollar index , which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, was down a smidgen at 74.488, off a two-week high of 74.960 struck the previous day.

"Clearly the markets are very concerned about the U.S. economy and the U.S. debt situation itself," said Greg Gibbs, strategist at RBS. "Those are the key factors preventing what would normally be a bigger fallout, given the amount of risk around the European situation."

Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, told Sueddeutsche Zeitung in an interview to be published on Tuesday that a solution for the Greek sovereign debt crisis was not as far off as some might think.

The dollar eased a tad to 80.17 yen from Monday's high of 80.70 but has stabilised around 80.00/81.00 since its steady decline from April's high above 85.50.

The Bank of Japan ends its policy meeting later on Tuesday and there is some chance it could expand a loan scheme, though that would likely have little impact on markets . (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Rick Lloyd in Singapore

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